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Poland IV Liga · PL

Talent Warsaw vs Blonianka Blonie

23 Oct 2026 · 18:00
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a moderate model-market difference for an away win for Blonianka Blonie. The model and market assessments show a noticeable divergence.

Recent Performance

The home side have experienced mixed results recently. Defensive difficulties have been apparent. Across the matches with available shooting data, they have faced considerably more attempts than they have produced.

The visitors have experienced mixed results recently. Defensive difficulties have been apparent. Across the matches with available shooting data, their shooting balance has been moderately positive.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

The available Bet365 pre-match reference odds of 3.20 exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 3.04. This suggests a potential pricing advantage for an away win for Blonianka Blonie, although the difference alone is not enough to establish a reliable betting opportunity. The assessment applies only before kick-off.

Statistical Context & Data Notes

Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · BET365
HOME
Talent Warsaw
STOCHASTICBET 44.4%
BET365 49.7% odd 1.80
DIFFERENCE -5.3 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 22.6%
BET365 22.4% odd 4.00
DIFFERENCE +0.3 pp
AWAY MODEL > MARKET
Blonianka Blonie
STOCHASTICBET 32.9%
BET365 28.0% odd 3.20
DIFFERENCE +5.0 pp
STOCHASTICBET
BET365 MARKET
Market · BET365 Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026 · 17:01
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

Blonianka Blonie has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
Talent Warsaw Blonianka Blonie
Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 17.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Blonianka Blonie, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
Talent Warsaw Blonianka Blonie
Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Blonianka Blonie has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
Talent Warsaw Blonianka Blonie

The combined recent performance profile favours Blonianka Blonie.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Market Momentum

Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-23 17:13:02

6h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — +8.18 pp
DRAW — -1.13 pp
AWAY — -7.05 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

24h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — +8.18 pp
DRAW — -1.13 pp
AWAY — -7.05 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.

Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
RECENT FORM · LAST 6 MATCHES

Recent matches compared

These charts compare recent performance with the league average. The central line represents the benchmark: values to the right are higher and values to the left are lower. Higher values are not always better, particularly for defensive metrics.
Benchmark: Poland IV Liga · 562 matches with scores · 546 with shots · coverage 97.2%.
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.

How have the teams performed recently?

Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss

Talent Warsaw6 matches · 3 home / 3 away
WLLWWL
Shot data available for 5/6 matches
Blonianka Blonie6 matches · 1 home / 5 away
DLLWLL
Shot data available for 5/6 matches

Shots taken

Shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
−3.510.2 actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
+3.215.4 actual
Talent Warsaw: 10.2 · league average 13.7 · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 15.4 · league average 12.2 · 5 valid matches

Shots conceded

Opposition shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
+2.415.6 actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
−2.712.0 actual
Talent Warsaw: 15.6 · league average 13.2 · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 12.0 · league average 14.7 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target

Shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
−1.04.8 actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
+0.25.2 actual
Talent Warsaw: 4.8 · league average 5.8 · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 5.2 · league average 5.1 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target conceded

Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
+1.57.0 actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
−1.54.8 actual
Talent Warsaw: 7.0 · league average 5.5 · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 4.8 · league average 6.3 · 5 valid matches

Goals scored

Goals per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
+0.342.17 actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
−0.341.33 actual
Talent Warsaw: 2.17 · league average 1.83 · 6 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 1.33 · league average 1.67 · 6 valid matches

Shot conversion

Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
+2.0 pp15.7% actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
−3.5 pp9.1% actual
Talent Warsaw: 15.7% · league average 13.7% · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 9.1% · league average 12.6% · 5 valid matches

Goals conceded per shots faced

Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Talent WarsawHome team
−0.5 pp12.8% actual
Blonianka BlonieAway team
−1.0 pp13.3% actual
Talent Warsaw: 12.8% · league average 13.3% · 5 valid matchesBlonianka Blonie: 13.3% · league average 14.3% · 5 valid matches

Individual match details

Talent Warsaw · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
17/10/2026Home3–29 / 127 / 7
26/09/2026Away0–18 / 152 / 7
19/09/2026Home1–39 / 153 / 6
30/08/2026Home2–19 / 163 / 9
05/06/2026Away5–1——
13/05/2026Away2–316 / 209 / 6
Blonianka Blonie · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
03/10/2026Away2–29 / 96 / 4
20/09/2026Away0–118 / 115 / 4
05/09/2026Away0–121 / 154 / 4
22/08/2026Away4–018 / 107 / 2
08/08/2026Away1–411 / 154 / 10
05/06/2026Home1–5——

The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.