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Mongolia Premier League · MN

Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar

10 Nov 2026 · 09:00
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a clear model-market difference for an away win for FC Ulaanbaatar. The model is meaningfully more favourable to this outcome than the market.

Recent Performance

Recent match analysis is not yet available for this fixture. Additional context will appear as the underlying match data becomes available.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

The available Bet365 pre-match reference odds of 1.57 exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.57. This suggests a potential pricing advantage for an away win for FC Ulaanbaatar, although the difference alone is not enough to establish a reliable betting opportunity. The assessment applies only before kick-off.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · BET365
HOME
Deren FC
STOCHASTICBET 18.9%
BET365 24.2% odd 3.70
DIFFERENCE -5.3 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 17.2%
BET365 18.8% odd 4.75
DIFFERENCE -1.6 pp
AWAY MODEL > MARKET
FC Ulaanbaatar
STOCHASTICBET 63.8%
BET365 57.0% odd 1.57
DIFFERENCE +6.9 pp
STOCHASTICBET
BET365 MARKET
Market · BET365 Snapshot · 09 Nov 2026 · 14:01
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

FC Ulaanbaatar has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar
Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 17.3 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours FC Ulaanbaatar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar
Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 9.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3

FC Ulaanbaatar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Ulaanbaatar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Market Momentum

Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-11-09 14:43:01

6h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — —
DRAW — —
AWAY — —

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

24h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — —
DRAW — —
AWAY — —

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.