Model: TipTromba4H
Sampaio Correa (W) – Varzea Grande (W)
PREDICTION
1
@ 3.50
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 29, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN2 - 1
StartStarted 27d 16h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.74% · n=129
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.74% · n=129
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 28d 1h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Sampaio Correa (W) | Varzea Grande (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-D-W-L | L-D-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-W-L (home) | L-D-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded | 1.33 scored / 2.33 conceded |
| Shots on target | 6.67 for / 5.33 against | 5.00 for / 7.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.67 for / 5.33 against (home) | 5.00 for / 7.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Sampaio Correa (W)'s attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.70First seen
Current3.10Now
Max odds3.10Highest point
Min odds2.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Sampaio Correa (W) – Varzea Grande (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba4H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.74% and 1.74%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample16
Win Rate31.3%
Profit+1.70u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Oratorio RC - Tuna Luso | 3.70 | 1.57% |
| WIN | FC Gagra - Dila Gori | 3.50 | 1.57% |
| LOSS | KS Wasilkow - Bron Radom | 3.75 | 1.00% |
| LOSS | Sarasota Paradise - Sporting JAX | 3.60 | 1.74% |
| WIN | Szekszardi (W) - Diosgyori VTK (W) | 3.50 | 1.74% |
| LOSS | ZP Sport Podbrezova U19 - MSK Zilina U19 | 3.50 | 1.74% |
| WIN | Lyn 1896 II - Elverum | 3.50 | 1.74% |
| WIN | Aigle Royal du Moungo - Cotonsport | 3.60 | 1.74% |
Pick
1 @ 3.50
Kickoff
Apr 29, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.74% • n=129
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.74% • n=129
Start
Started 27d 16h ago
Updated
Updated 28d 1h ago