Model: TIPPSH
VV Alkmaar (W) – Heerenveen (W)
PREDICTION
1
@ 1.78
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 03, 2026 2:15 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 5
StartStarted 24d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 24d 5h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | VV Alkmaar (W) | Heerenveen (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-D-D | W-L-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Home/Away form | L-D (home) | W-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 3.00 conceded | 3.00 scored / 1.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 7.00 for / 7.67 against | 5.00 for / 7.33 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 5.50 for / 7.00 against (home) | 6.00 for / 8.50 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to VV Alkmaar (W)'s attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.56First seen
Current1.78Now
Max odds1.78Highest point
Min odds1.56Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
VV Alkmaar (W) – Heerenveen (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.78. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample224
Win Rate54.5%
Profit+7.07u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Varnsdorf - Mladá Boleslav B | 1.89 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | South Melbourne - Auckland FC II | 1.84 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Jadran Dekani - NK Krka | 1.91 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | North Sunshine Eagles - Langwarrin | 1.75 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | CFR Cluj - FC Arges Pitesti | 1.85 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Imisli - FK Karvan | 1.80 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Kalmar FF - Degerfors | 1.95 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Real Monarchs SLC - Colorado Rapids II | 1.76 | 3.37% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1 | 1.98 | 4.86% | 09 May 13:00 |
| FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina | 1 | 1.93 | 2.30% | 10 May 19:00 |
Pick
1 @ 1.78
Kickoff
Mag 03, 2026 2:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.86% • n=299
Start
Started 24d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 24d 5h ago