Model: TIPPSH
Septemvri Sofia – Spartak Varna
PREDICTION
1
@ 1.81
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 14, 2026 4:15 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 27d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 27d 18h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Septemvri Sofia | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-D-L-D-D | L-W-D-L-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-D-D (home) | L-L-D-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.50 scored / 0.25 conceded | 0.25 scored / 2.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.00 for / 3.60 against | 4.00 for / 7.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 2.75 for / 2.50 against (home) | 1.75 for / 6.50 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Septemvri Sofia. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.
Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 8.0%
7D: -6.1%
15D: -11.8%
30D: 0.4%
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.71First seen
Current1.81Now
Max odds1.81Highest point
Min odds1.68Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Septemvri Sofia – Spartak Varna Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.81. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample244
Win Rate52.9%
Profit+1.38u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Congo DR - Chile | 2.03 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Blacktown City U20 - Rockdale Ilinden FC U20 | 2.00 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Real Sociedad (W) - Atletico Madrid (W) | 2.03 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Varnsdorf - Mladá Boleslav B | 1.89 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | South Melbourne - Auckland FC II | 1.84 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Jadran Dekani - NK Krka | 1.91 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | North Sunshine Eagles - Langwarrin | 1.75 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | CFR Cluj - FC Arges Pitesti | 1.85 | 3.37% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1 | 1.98 | 4.86% | 09 May 13:00 |
| FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina | 1 | 1.93 | 2.30% | 10 May 19:00 |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC - Sacramento Republic | 1 | 1.97 | 3.37% | 14 Jun 03:00 |
Pick
1 @ 1.81
Kickoff
Mag 14, 2026 4:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.86% • n=299
Start
Started 27d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 27d 18h ago