Lagarto – CS Sergipe

Model: TIPPSA

Lagarto vs CS Sergipe

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.22
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 17, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 61d 17h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=177
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=177
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 61d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is CS Sergipe. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CS Sergipe

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

42/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.25First seen
Current2.38Now
Max odds2.55Highest point
Min odds2.25Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LagartoHOME
VS
CS SergipeAWAY
DDLLL
Recent form
DWWWL
Avg goals scored
0.80
1.80
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.20
Shots on target for
4.20
5.80
SoT conceded pressure
6.20
4.20
Home splitD-L-L-W2.00 scored / 2.25 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-D1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.22. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.31% based on n=177 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie D (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.22
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.31% · n=177
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.31% · n=177
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives CS Sergipe a useful statistical edge. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. CS Sergipe is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 10.9% 7D: 4.5% 15D: -4.5% 30D: -2.0%
Model insight

Lagarto – CS Sergipe Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.22. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.31% and 4.31%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample140
Win Rate45.0%
Profit+0.64u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINLipno Steszew - Unia Swarzedz2.444.13%
WINCraigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)2.343.43%
LOSSUnion La Calera - Universidad de Chile2.293.59%
LOSSVotoraty U23 - Guarulhos U232.082.63%
LOSSVidar - Pors Grenland2.082.63%
WINSanta Clara U23 - Gil Vicente U232.012.63%
LOSSLech Poznan UAM (W) - Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)2.253.59%
LOSSChrobry Glogow - LKS Lodz2.192.63%
Pick
2 @ 2.22
Kickoff
Mag 17, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.31% • n=177
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.31% • n=177
Start
Started 61d 17h ago
Updated
Updated 61d 19h ago
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