Model: TipA1
Rio Negro RR (W) – Ceara (W)
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.25
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 20, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 7d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.02% · n=648
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 7d 10h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Rio Negro RR (W) | Ceara (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-L-W-L | L-L-L-W-D |
| Avg goals scored | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | W-W-W-W (home) | L-L-L-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.50 scored / 0.25 conceded | 0.50 scored / 1.75 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.80 for / 6.20 against | 5.40 for / 6.60 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.67 for / 1.67 against (home) | 3.33 for / 5.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Ceara (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.25First seen
Current3.06Now
Max odds3.06Highest point
Min odds2.25Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Rio Negro RR (W) – Ceara (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.02% across 648 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample45
Win Rate44.4%
Profit+1.95u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | La Luz Reserves - Juventud De Las Piedras Reserves | 2.35 | 1.02% |
| LOSS | North Texas SC - The Town | 2.30 | 1.02% |
| LOSS | SK Prostejov - FC Silon Taborsko | 2.35 | 1.02% |
| WIN | Sorrento U23 - Olympic Kingsway U23 | 2.00 | 1.03% |
| WIN | Bentleigh Greens U23 - Caroline Springs George Cross U23 | 2.35 | 1.02% |
| LOSS | Resistencia FC - General Caballero JLM | 2.35 | 1.02% |
| LOSS | FC Järfälla - Gefle IF | 2.45 | 1.02% |
| LOSS | Wynnum Wolves - Brisbane Olympic FC | 2.25 | 1.02% |
Pick
2 @ 2.25
Kickoff
Mag 20, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.02% • n=648
Start
Started 7d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 7d 10h ago