Upper Hutt City – Waterside Karori

Model: TIPPSH

Upper Hutt City vs Waterside Karori

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.76
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 27, 2026 4:30 AM
ResultWIN6 - 0
StartStarted 45d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 45d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Upper Hutt City. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Upper Hutt CityGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

33/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.67First seen
Current1.76Now
Max odds1.80Highest point
Min odds1.67Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Upper Hutt CityHOME
VS
Waterside KaroriAWAY
WLWWW
Recent form
LDWDL
Avg goals scored
3.00
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.80
Shots on target for
7.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
2.80
7.40
Home splitW-L-W-W-L2.40 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitL-D-D-L-L0.20 scored / 2.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.76. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Central League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.76
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Upper Hutt City is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -15.8% 7D: -13.0% 15D: -8.2% 30D: -2.5%
Model insight

Upper Hutt City – Waterside Karori Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.76. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample240
Win Rate54.2%
Profit+5.07u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINKairat Almaty (W) - Kaisar Kyzylorda (W)1.963.37%
WINCruzeiro - Mirassol1.763.37%
WINBFC Daugavpils - Tukums 20001.753.37%
WINBayern Munich - Aston Villa1.923.37%
LOSSBeitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca1.953.37%
WINSekhukhune United FC - Durban City1.883.37%
WINPonte Preta U20 - Uniao Suzano AC U201.813.37%
WINQueen's Park - Queen of South2.013.37%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz11.984.86%09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina11.932.30%10 May 19:00
Al Taawon Buraidah - Al Khaleej Saihat11.803.37%15 Aug 18:15
Pick
1 @ 1.76
Kickoff
Giu 27, 2026 4:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Started 45d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 45d 4h ago
Torna in alto