Nelson Suburbs – Auckland United FC

Model: TIPPSH

Nelson Suburbs vs Auckland United FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.63
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 26, 2026 5:30 AM
ResultWIN2 - 1
StartStarted 16h 23m ago
V2 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 18h 25m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nelson Suburbs. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nelson SuburbsGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.069 | A: -0.052

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (Min) and market odds.

14/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.05First seen
Current2.63Now
Max odds2.63Highest point
Min odds2.01Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nelson SuburbsHOME
VS
Auckland United FCAWAY
WWWWW
Recent form
LDLWW
Avg goals scored
4.80
1.40
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.40
Shots on target for
15.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
3.00
Home splitW-W-W-W-L5.20 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-L-W1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.63. The confidence profile is still limited for this specific model setup. The match belongs to New Zealand Cup (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.63
V2 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Nelson Suburbs shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Nelson Suburbs has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -10.7% 7D: 3.5% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 19.6%
Model insight

Nelson Suburbs – Auckland United FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.63. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Pick
1 @ 2.63
Kickoff
Lug 26, 2026 5:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: ?
Start
Started 16h 23m ago
Updated
Updated 18h 25m ago
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