NK Kustosija – Karlovac

Model: TIPPSH

NK Kustosija vs Karlovac

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 29, 2026 12:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 2
StartStarted 23h 48m ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.87% · n=129
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is NK Kustosija. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NK KustosijaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.049 | A: -0.077

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

61/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.05First seen
Current3.75Now
Max odds4.56Highest point
Min odds3.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

NK KustosijaHOME
VS
KarlovacAWAY
LWWLD
Recent form
WWLLD
Avg goals scored
2.00
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.80
1.40
Shots on target for
3.60
1.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.00
Home splitL-W-D-W-W2.40 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L-L0.60 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.75. The V2 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 5.87% based on n=129 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.75
V2 BandHIGHROI 5.87% · n=129
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. NK Kustosija is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -8.1% 7D: -6.9% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 14.3%
Model insight

NK Kustosija – Karlovac Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.87% across 129 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample6
Win Rate16.7%
Profit-2.18u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFK Bumprom - FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk3.945.87%
LOSSLyn 1896 U19 - Molde U193.905.87%
WINHUSA Agadir - RSB Berkane3.825.87%
LOSSEl Salvador (W) - Costa Rica (W)3.707.69%
LOSSClub 9 de Octubre - Manta FC3.707.69%
LOSSWil 1900 - FC Vaduz3.606.76%
Pick
1 @ 3.75
Kickoff
Lug 29, 2026 12:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.87% • n=129
Start
Started 23h 48m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 1h ago
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