Model: TIPPSA

Estrela vs Al-Nassr Riyadh

PREDICTION

@ 2.19

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 01, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultLOSS4 - 2

StartStarted 1d 23h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Al-Nassr Riyadh. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Al-Nassr RiyadhGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

31/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.25First seen

Current2.25Now

Max odds2.25Highest point

Min odds2.09Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

EstrelaHOME

Al-Nassr RiyadhAWAY

WDDLL

Recent form

LWLDW

Avg goals scored

1.80

2.20

Defensive weakness

1.80

Shots on target for

3.80

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

4.20

Home splitW-D-L-L1.25 scored / 1.25 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-W-W2.60 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.19. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.21% based on n=228 historical similar picks. The match belongs to World Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.19

V2 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Al-Nassr Riyadh is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 26.2% 7D: 1.3% 15D: 11.2% 30D: 8.7%

Model insight

Estrela – Al-Nassr Riyadh Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.19. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.21% and 1.21%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample117

Win Rate52.1%

Profit+13.79u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Bray Wanderers	2.28	0.84%
WIN	Brommapojkarna - Malmo FF	2.08	1.21%
LOSS	FK Ekranas - FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2.37	0.84%
LOSS	Carina Gubin - Miedz Legnica II	2.19	1.21%
WIN	Sandviken - Kvik Halden FK	2.33	0.84%
WIN	Coritiba - Cruzeiro	2.34	0.84%
LOSS	Hradec Kralove - Tromso	2.11	1.21%
LOSS	Amazonas FC - Paysandu	2.15	1.21%

Pick

2 @ 2.19

Kickoff

Ago 01, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.21% • n=228

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.21% • n=228

Start

Started 1d 23h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 1h ago