Model: TipTromba7H

Holywell Town vs Connah's Quay

PREDICTION

@ 6.25

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 07, 2026 10:45 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 3

StartStarted 1h 10m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.46% · n=43

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Holywell Town. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Holywell TownGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.056 | A: -0.039

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds6.25First seen

Current6.25Now

Max odds6.25Highest point

Min odds6.25Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Holywell TownHOME

Connah's QuayAWAY

LLDLW

Recent form

WLLDW

Avg goals scored

1.80

1.40

Defensive weakness

2.40

1.20

Shots on target for

5.40

4.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.20

2.60

Home splitL-D-W-L2.00 scored / 1.75 conceded

Away splitW-L-W-L1.75 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 6.25. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.46% based on n=43 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd6.25

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.46% · n=43

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Holywell Town has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 10.4% 7D: 22.6% 15D: 5.4% 30D: 11.7%

Model insight

Holywell Town – Connah’s Quay Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 6.25. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba7H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.46% across 43 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample18

Win Rate22.2%

Profit+7.50u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Burton Albion - Birmingham	6.25	2.46%
LOSS	Helmond Sport - Westerlo	6.00	2.68%
LOSS	Kickers Emden - St Pauli	6.00	2.68%
LOSS	North Pine - Yeronga FC	6.00	2.68%
LOSS	WSG Swarovski Wattens II - FC Wacker Innsbruck	6.00	2.68%
LOSS	Al Tadamon SC - Al Qadsia SC	6.00	2.68%
LOSS	IJsselmeervogels U21 - FC Volendam U21	6.00	2.26%
WIN	Cumberland United - Adelaide City	6.50	4.30%

Pick

1 @ 6.25

Kickoff

Ago 07, 2026 10:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.46% • n=43

Start

Started 1h 10m ago

Updated

Updated 2d 4h ago