ASD Calcio Pavonese – Desenzano

Model: TipTromba12H

ASD Calcio Pavonese vs Desenzano

PREDICTION
1
@ 11.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 06, 2026 7:30 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 19h 11m
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.75% · n=44
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is ASD Calcio Pavonese. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ASD Calcio PavoneseGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

64/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds6.00First seen
Current11.00Now
Max odds11.00Highest point
Min odds6.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ASD Calcio PavoneseHOME
VS
DesenzanoAWAY
W
Recent form
W
Avg goals scored
2.00
2.00
Defensive weakness
0.00
1.00
Shots on target for
5.00
8.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
5.00
Home splitN/AN/A scored / N/A conceded
Away splitN/AN/A scored / N/A conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 11.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.75% based on n=44 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd11.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.75% · n=44
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 30.1% 7D: 27.2% 15D: 6.9% 30D: 12.7%
Model insight

ASD Calcio Pavonese – Desenzano Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 11.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba12H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.75% across 44 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample7
Win Rate0.0%
Profit-7.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSLivingston (W) - Motherwell (W)11.004.75%
LOSSKarlsruher SC - Inter Milan11.004.75%
LOSSSlaven Belupo - Shakhtar Donetsk11.004.75%
LOSSStirling - Dundee Utd11.004.75%
LOSSLansing City Football - Midwest United11.004.75%
LOSSCanberra Croatia FC (W) - Belconnen United (W)11.004.75%
LOSSGlenorchy Knights Reserves - Taroona11.004.75%
Pick
1 @ 11.00
Kickoff
Ago 06, 2026 7:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.75% • n=44
Start
Starts in 19h 11m
Updated
Updated 12m ago
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