Lecco – Desenzano

Model: TipA1

Lecco vs Desenzano

PREDICTION
2
@ 5.50
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 23h 44m ago
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.89% · n=34
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Desenzano. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: DesenzanoGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.079 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

86/100
Excellent value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.50First seen
Current5.84Now
Max odds6.42Highest point
Min odds5.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeccoHOME
VS
DesenzanoAWAY
DLLLD
Recent form
DDWW
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.00
Defensive weakness
2.40
0.50
Shots on target for
2.40
3.67
SoT conceded pressure
4.20
3.00
Home splitD-L-L-D-D0.60 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitD-W1.00 scored / 0.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 5.50. The V2 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 10.89% based on n=34 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Cup (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd5.50
V2 BandELITEROI 10.89% · n=34
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Desenzano. Comparable matches classified within the ELITE confidence range have historically generated positive model outcomes. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Desenzano's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -21.8% 7D: -23.4% 15D: -0.3% 30D: 3.3%
Model insight

Lecco – Desenzano Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 5.50. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is ELITE, with a historical expected ROI of 10.89% across 34 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample11
Win Rate27.3%
Profit+5.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSOH Leuven (W) - Fenerbahce (W)5.2510.89%
WINDefensor Sporting (W) - Montevideo City Torque (W)5.2510.89%
WINASA Targu Mures - Cetate Suceava5.2510.89%
LOSSHearts - Dundee Utd5.2510.89%
LOSSFerencvarosi TC - Vasas SC5.2510.89%
WINCobresal - CD Antofagasta5.5010.89%
LOSSJuan Pablo II College - Club Ada Jaen5.5010.89%
LOSSYeronga FC - Mount Gravatt Hawks5.5010.89%
Pick
2 @ 5.50
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 10.89% • n=34
Start
Started 23h 44m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 13h ago
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