Model: TIPPSH

Brighton vs Aston Villa

PREDICTION

@ 2.28

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 23, 2026 5:00 PM

ResultWIN4 - 0

StartStarted 5h 58m ago

V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.94% · n=311

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.94% · n=311

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9h 12m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Brighton. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BrightonGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.037 | A: -0.032

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

59/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.31First seen

Current2.28Now

Max odds2.31Highest point

Min odds2.23Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BrightonHOME

Aston VillaAWAY

WDWWW

Recent form

LLLLW

Avg goals scored

2.40

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.60

2.20

Shots on target for

6.20

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

2.00

5.60

Home splitW-W-W-W-L2.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-L-W1.20 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.28. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 8.94% based on n=311 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.28

V2 BandELITEROI 8.94% · n=311

V4 BandELITEROI 8.94% · n=311

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The model places this selection in a historically favorable confidence range. Brighton is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 36.3% 7D: 28.9% 15D: 4.0% 30D: 6.5%

Model insight

Brighton – Aston Villa Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.28. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 8.94% and 8.94%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample34

Win Rate61.8%

Profit+15.31u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	London City Lionesses (W) - Atletico Madrid (W)	2.30	8.94%
LOSS	Selwyn United - Northern AFC	2.51	11.02%
LOSS	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar - Al Ittihad Jeddah	2.05	8.87%
WIN	SV Ried - Grazer AK	2.40	8.94%
LOSS	Sevilla (W) - Granada (W)	2.20	9.18%
WIN	Deportes Linares - Provincial Osorno	2.47	8.94%
LOSS	Cienciano - Deportivo Garcilaso	2.45	8.94%
WIN	NSI Runavik II - HB Torshavn II	2.49	8.94%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
FC Arges Pitesti - Petrolul Ploiesti	1	2.43	8.94%	24 Jul 20:30
Universidad de Chile - Colo Colo	1	2.40	8.94%	23 Aug 21:00
FC Fredericia - Odense BK	1	2.47	8.94%	26 Aug 18:00

Pick

1 @ 2.28

Kickoff

Ago 23, 2026 5:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: ELITE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 8.94% • n=311

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

8.94% • n=311

Start

Started 5h 58m ago

Updated

Updated 9h 12m ago