Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali

Model: TIPPSA

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.13
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 24, 2026 10:15 PM
ResultWIN0 - 1
StartStarted 2d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.76% · n=235
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Arda Kardzhali. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Arda KardzhaliGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.039 | A: 0.030

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

20/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.95First seen
Current2.13Now
Max odds2.33Highest point
Min odds1.95Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Lokomotiv PlovdivHOME
VS
Arda KardzhaliAWAY
LLLLW
Recent form
WWWLW
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.40
0.60
Shots on target for
2.80
5.60
SoT conceded pressure
5.00
2.20
Home splitL-L-W-W-W1.40 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-W-L-D-L1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.13. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.76% based on n=235 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bulgaria First League (bg). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.13
V2 BandNONEROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 BandNONEROI -1.76% · n=235
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Arda Kardzhali is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 27.5% 7D: 21.3% 15D: 4.1% 30D: 7.2%
Model insight

Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.13. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -0.84% and -1.76%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample90
Win Rate42.2%
Profit-9.45u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSAl Zulfi - Al Wehda Mecca2.24-0.84%
LOSSJK Trans Narva - JK Nomme Kalju2.04-0.84%
LOSSMosta FC - Balzan FC2.19-0.84%
LOSSVanspor FK - Istanbulspor2.11-0.84%
WINPreston - Wolverhampton2.08-0.84%
WINFC Vsetin - SK Unicov2.04-0.84%
WINSJK Akatemia II - JBK2.15-0.84%
LOSSAtlantis FC/PM - ToTe2.16-0.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.13
Kickoff
Ago 24, 2026 10:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.84% • n=515
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.76% • n=235
Start
Started 2d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 2d 8h ago
Torna in alto