Toluca vs Leon
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Toluca. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: TolucaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.080 | A: 0.113Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.82. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Leagues Cup (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.
Toluca – Leon Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | CD Olimpia Reserves - Motagua Reserves | 1.84 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Vila Nova - Ceara | 1.88 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Servette - Lucerne | 1.91 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | FC Tallinn - JK Nomme Kalju II | 1.97 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Sutton Utd - Wealdstone | 1.99 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Slovan Liberec - Hradec Kralove | 1.90 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Boca Juniors - Lanus | 1.75 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Stockport - Wycombe | 2.02 | 3.37% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1 | 1.98 | 4.86% | 09 May 13:00 |
| FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina | 1 | 1.93 | 2.30% | 10 May 19:00 |
| QPR - Cardiff | 1 | 1.92 | 3.37% | 02 Sep 20:45 |
| FC Seoul - Incheon Utd | 1 | 1.93 | 3.37% | 05 Sep 12:00 |
| Salford City - Port Vale | 1 | 1.96 | 3.37% | 05 Sep 13:30 |
| Pendikspor - Umraniyespor | 1 | 1.76 | 3.37% | 05 Sep 19:00 |