AD Nogueirense – UD da Serra

Model: TIPPSA

AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.34
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 06, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 2d 9h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.59% · n=214
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2d 12h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is UD da Serra. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: UD da SerraGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: 0.013

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.80First seen
Current2.34Now
Max odds2.34Highest point
Min odds1.80Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AD NogueirenseHOME
VS
UD da SerraAWAY
DLDD
Recent form
DWWWL
Avg goals scored
1.50
2.40
Defensive weakness
2.00
1.40
Shots on target for
4.33
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.33
4.40
Home splitD-L-D1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-L1.25 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.34. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.59% based on n=214 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Campeonato Nacional (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.34
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.59% · n=214
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -0.3% 7D: 11.9% 15D: 11.3% 30D: 6.7%
Model insight

AD Nogueirense – UD da Serra Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.34. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.59% across 214 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample201
Win Rate43.8%
Profit+6.05u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINHviti Riddarinn - Kormakur/Hvot2.284.13%
LOSSOrkla - NTNUI2.102.63%
LOSSIndependiente Santa Fe - Millonarios2.424.13%
WINGil Vicente U23 - Rio Ave U232.344.13%
WINHull U21 - Swansea U212.152.63%
WINAsyut Petroleum - National Bank2.264.13%
LOSSHartberg - SV Ried2.504.13%
LOSSSamgurali - FC Rustavi2.334.13%
Pick
2 @ 2.34
Kickoff
Set 06, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.59% • n=214
Start
Started 2d 9h ago
Updated
Updated 2d 12h ago
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