Aguilas – Alcorcon

Model: TIPPSH

Aguilas vs Alcorcon

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.92
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 30, 2026 9:15 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 16h 44m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 18h 51m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Aguilas. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AguilasGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.041 | A: -0.068

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

50/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.40First seen
Current2.92Now
Max odds2.92Highest point
Min odds2.40Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AguilasHOME
VS
AlcorconAWAY
DDWWD
Recent form
DWLLD
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.20
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.20
Shots on target for
4.00
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
2.20
2.20
Home splitD-D-W-W-D1.40 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-L-D1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.92. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.53% based on n=669 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.92
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 0.5% 7D: 7.5% 15D: 14.7% 30D: 9.0%
Model insight

Aguilas – Alcorcon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.92. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.53% across 669 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample85
Win Rate43.5%
Profit+21.81u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINFC Zurich II - FC Schaffhausen2.924.53%
WINTrujillanos - Monagas3.132.04%
LOSSCD Universitario - CD Arabe Unido2.854.53%
LOSSCosenza - Potenza3.004.53%
WINCavese - Audace Cerignola2.682.49%
LOSSBayer Leverkusen (W) - Wolfsburg (W)3.124.53%
LOSSDerry City - Shamrock Rovers2.673.15%
WINSabadell - Almeria3.014.53%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Central Espanol Reserves - Liverpool Montevideo Reserves13.094.53%21 Jul 19:00
FC Elimai Semey - Kairat Almaty13.104.53%31 Aug 16:00
El Gounah - Al Moqawloon Al Arab12.914.53%02 Sep 16:00
Bohemians 1905 - FK Jablonec12.854.53%02 Sep 20:00
Pick
1 @ 2.92
Kickoff
Ago 30, 2026 9:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.53% • n=669
Start
Started 16h 44m ago
Updated
Updated 18h 51m ago
Torna in alto