Alfreton Town – Derby

Model: TipTrombaGt15H

Alfreton Town vs Derby

PREDICTION
1
@ 51.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 17, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 8h 56m
V2 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Alfreton Town. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Alfreton Town

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (Min) and market odds.

30/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds34.00First seen
Current51.00Now
Max odds51.00Highest point
Min odds34.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Alfreton TownHOME
VS
DerbyAWAY
LDLDW
Recent form
LWLWL
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.40
Defensive weakness
2.40
1.60
Shots on target for
3.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
7.00
6.00
Home splitL-D-L-D-D1.20 scored / 2.40 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L1.75 scored / 2.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 51.00. The confidence profile is still limited for this specific model setup. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd51.00
V2 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 36.7% 7D: -0.4% 15D: 4.3% 30D: 17.2%
Model insight

Alfreton Town – Derby Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 51.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTrombaGt15H model profile. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Pick
1 @ 51.00
Kickoff
Lug 17, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ?
Start
Starts in 8h 56m
Updated
Updated 7m ago
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