Model: TipA1

AS Ostia Mare vs Grosseto

PREDICTION

@ 2.70

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 29, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 15h 28m ago

V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.14% · n=199

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.14% · n=199

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Grosseto. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: GrossetoGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.111 | A: -0.132

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

71/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.30First seen

Current2.80Now

Max odds3.30Highest point

Min odds2.80Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AS Ostia MareHOME

GrossetoAWAY

LLDLL

Recent form

WDLWD

Avg goals scored

0.40

2.00

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.60

Shots on target for

3.00

6.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

3.60

Home splitL-L-L-W-W0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-D-W-L1.00 scored / 0.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.70. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 11.14% based on n=199 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Group B (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.70

V2 BandELITEROI 11.14% · n=199

V4 BandELITEROI 11.14% · n=199

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar ELITE underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. Grosseto is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 2.6% 7D: 17.1% 15D: 7.3% 30D: 8.2%

Model insight

AS Ostia Mare – Grosseto Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.70. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 11.14% and 11.14%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample39

Win Rate48.7%

Profit+12.40u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	FK Panevezys II - Banga Gargzdai II	2.88	12.47%
LOSS	Al Jandal - Al-Saqer FC	2.90	12.47%
WIN	Ferroviario U20 - Quinho FC U20	2.80	12.47%
WIN	Hull (W) - Norwich (W)	2.90	9.73%
WIN	MFK Ruzomberok U19 - Dukla Banska Bystrica U19	2.60	11.14%
LOSS	Zamora - UCV	2.88	12.47%
LOSS	Inter Toronto - Supra du Quebec	2.55	11.14%
LOSS	Kocaelispor - Amedspor	2.90	12.47%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Lech Poznan UAM II (W) - UKS Staszkowka Jelna (W)	2	2.88	12.47%	30 Aug 17:00

Pick

2 @ 2.70

Kickoff

Ago 29, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: ELITE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 11.14% • n=199

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

11.14% • n=199

Start

Started 15h 28m ago

Updated

Updated 1d 1h ago