Model: TipA1

Baglan Dragons vs Pure Swansea

PREDICTION

@ 2.38

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 09, 2026 5:30 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 16h 29m

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.36% · n=530

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.36% · n=530

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 4h 42m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Pure Swansea. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Pure SwanseaGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

51/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.38First seen

Current2.40Now

Max odds2.40Highest point

Min odds2.38Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Baglan DragonsHOME

Pure SwanseaAWAY

DDL

Recent form

Avg goals scored

0.33

3.00

Defensive weakness

1.00

0.00

Shots on target for

1.67

7.00

SoT conceded pressure

4.33

1.00

Home splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitW3.00 scored / 0.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.38. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.36% based on n=530 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Championship South (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.38

V2 BandHIGHROI 6.36% · n=530

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.36% · n=530

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The confidence band strengthens the case for the pick beyond the basic market price. Pure Swansea has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 23.5% 7D: 18.5% 15D: 8.5% 30D: 11.5%

Model insight

Baglan Dragons – Pure Swansea Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.36% and 6.36%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample68

Win Rate39.7%

Profit-2.14u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Perolas Negras (W) - 3B Sport AM (W)	2.25	7.37%
WIN	Denbigh Town - Bangor 1876 FC	2.50	6.36%
LOSS	Bodens BK FF - Täfteå IK	2.25	7.37%
WIN	JK Nomme United II - FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2.30	6.36%
LOSS	FK Loko Praha - Dukla Praha B	2.60	6.36%
WIN	Tvååkers IF - Atvidabergs FF	2.50	6.36%
WIN	Trau FC - FC Raengdai	2.45	6.36%
WIN	Remo - Santos	2.40	6.36%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
IK Franke - Enskede IK	2	2.30	6.36%	09 Aug 13:00

Pick

2 @ 2.38

Kickoff

Ago 09, 2026 5:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 6.36% • n=530

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.36% • n=530

Start

Starts in 16h 29m

Updated

Updated 4h 42m ago