Model: TipA1

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Nof HaGalil

PREDICTION

@ 2.00

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffSet 05, 2026 9:30 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 2

StartStarted 2d 4h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.03% · n=125

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.03% · n=125

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Hapoel Nof HaGalil. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Hapoel Nof HaGalilGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: -0.059

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.00First seen

Current2.10Now

Max odds2.10Highest point

Min odds2.00Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Hapoel Umm al-FahmHOME

Hapoel Nof HaGalilAWAY

Recent form

DWDLL

Avg goals scored

2.00

2.20

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.60

Shots on target for

8.00

5.60

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

5.20

Home splitD2.00 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitD-W-L-D-L2.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.00. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.03% based on n=125 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Israel Liga Alef North (il). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.00

V2 BandLOWROI 1.03% · n=125

V4 BandLOWROI 1.03% · n=125

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 26.7% 7D: 10.4% 15D: 15.8% 30D: 7.8%

Model insight

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm – Hapoel Nof HaGalil Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.03% and 1.03%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample48

Win Rate52.1%

Profit+5.65u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	MFK Zemplin Michalovce U19 - ZP Sport Podbrezova U19	2.25	1.02%
LOSS	Gaborone United - Young Africans	2.10	1.03%
LOSS	Unia Tarnow - Orzel Ryczow	2.05	1.03%
WIN	Colchester U21 - Barnsley U21	2.05	1.03%
WIN	FK Cukaricki - Vojvodina	2.10	1.03%
WIN	Lion City Sailors FC U23 - Tanjong Pagar United U23	2.25	1.02%
WIN	Itagui Leones - Real Cartagena	2.25	1.02%
LOSS	Atlético Balboa Reserves - Fuerte San Francisco Reserves	2.25	1.02%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	2	2.05	1.03%	08 Sep 12:30

Pick

2 @ 2.00

Kickoff

Set 05, 2026 9:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.03% • n=125

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.03% • n=125

Start

Started 2d 4h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 14h ago