Model: TIPPSH

Itagui Leones vs Independiente Medellin

PREDICTION

@ 4.31

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 30, 2026 3:00 AM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 53d 22h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.63% · n=79

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 54d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Itagui Leones. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Itagui LeonesGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

46/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds4.22First seen

Current4.31Now

Max odds5.42Highest point

Min odds4.22Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Itagui LeonesHOME

Independiente MedellinAWAY

DDWLD

Recent form

DLWDW

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.00

Shots on target for

3.80

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

4.60

4.40

Home splitD-W-W1.33 scored / 0.33 conceded

Away splitD-L-W-D-W1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.31. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.63% based on n=79 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Colombia Cup (co). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.31

V2 BandLOWROI 0.63% · n=79

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 16.2% 7D: 11.7% 15D: 23.7% 30D: 9.3%

Model insight

Itagui Leones – Independiente Medellin Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.31. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.63% across 79 similar predictions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample2

Win Rate50.0%

Profit+2.30u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Xuan Thien Phu Tho - Truong Tuoi Dong Nai	4.30	0.63%

Pick

1 @ 4.31

Kickoff

Mag 30, 2026 3:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.63% • n=79

Start

Started 53d 22h ago

Updated

Updated 54d ago