Model: TIPPSA
Lagarto – CS Sergipe
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.22
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 17, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 9d 22h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=177
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=177
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 10d ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Lagarto | CS Sergipe |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-D-L-L-L | D-W-W-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Home/Away form | D-L-L-W (home) | D-W-L-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.00 scored / 2.25 conceded | 1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 6.20 against | 5.80 for / 4.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 5.75 for / 5.25 against (home) | 3.50 for / 4.25 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. CS Sergipe has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.25First seen
Current2.38Now
Max odds2.55Highest point
Min odds2.25Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Lagarto – CS Sergipe Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.22. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.31% and 4.31%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample132
Win Rate45.5%
Profit+1.85u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2.25 | 3.43% |
| LOSS | Glasgow City (W) - Rangers (W) | 2.05 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | Lobos UPNFM Reserves - CD Marathon Reserves | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | Radnik Bijeljina - Borac Banja Luka | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | ADO Den Haag (W) - PEC Zwolle (W) | 2.25 | 4.13% |
| LOSS | AFC Hermannstadt - FCSB | 2.26 | 3.31% |
| LOSS | Kasimpasa - Galatasaray | 2.27 | 3.31% |
| LOSS | Valur Reykjavik - Breidablik | 2.16 | 4.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.22
Kickoff
Mag 17, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.31% • n=177
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.31% • n=177
Start
Started 9d 22h ago
Updated
Updated 10d ago