Monterey Bay FC – Sacramento Republic

Model: TIPPSA

Monterey Bay FC vs Sacramento Republic

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.16
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 30, 2026 6:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 1d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 9h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sacramento Republic. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sacramento RepublicGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.078 | A: -0.064

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

24/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.92First seen
Current2.16Now
Max odds2.16Highest point
Min odds1.92Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Monterey Bay FCHOME
VS
Sacramento RepublicAWAY
DLDLL
Recent form
DDWDL
Avg goals scored
1.00
0.80
Defensive weakness
2.20
0.80
Shots on target for
3.80
2.80
SoT conceded pressure
5.80
2.00
Home splitD-L-L-L-W1.40 scored / 2.20 conceded
Away splitD-D-L-W-D1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.16. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.84% based on n=515 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA USL Championship (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.16
V2 BandNONEROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Sacramento Republic a useful statistical edge. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -11.8% 7D: 8.4% 15D: 12.5% 30D: 8.9%
Model insight

Monterey Bay FC – Sacramento Republic Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.16. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.84% across 515 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample100
Win Rate41.0%
Profit-13.14u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSHvidovre IF - FC Fredericia2.06-0.84%
LOSSFC Ostermundigen (W) - Lugano (W)2.21-0.84%
LOSSManta FC - Barcelona Guayaquil2.03-0.84%
WINVikingur Olafsvik - Haukar2.05-0.84%
LOSSReynir Sandgerdi - Vidir Gardur2.09-0.84%
WINFK Qarabag - FC Twente2.11-0.84%
LOSSFerencvarosi TC - Trabzonspor2.07-0.84%
WINHradec Kralove - Panathinaikos2.15-0.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.16
Kickoff
Ago 30, 2026 6:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.84% • n=515
Start
Started 1d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 9h ago
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