Model: TipA1

Serrano vs Sao Goncalo

PREDICTION

@ 3.70

StatusUpcoming

KickoffGiu 27, 2026 9:45 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 20h 47m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.63% · n=305

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1h 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sao Goncalo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sao Goncalo

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

49/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.70First seen

Current3.70Now

Max odds3.70Highest point

Min odds3.70Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SerranoHOME

Sao GoncaloAWAY

LDDDL

Recent form

WWDDD

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.60

Shots on target for

2.40

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

2.60

2.00

Home splitD-D-L-D-D0.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitD-D-L-L-W0.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.70. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.63% based on n=305 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.70

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.63% · n=305

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Sao Goncalo is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 11.4% 7D: -15.4% 15D: -6.0% 30D: -2.3%

Model insight

Serrano – Sao Goncalo Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.70. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.63% across 305 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample21

Win Rate33.3%

Profit+5.45u

Historical Similar Predictions

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LOSS	Ferroviario Lichinga - Costa Do Sol	3.50	2.63%
LOSS	Adelaide Cobras - Eastern United	3.70	2.63%
LOSS	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas - CA Costa Brava	3.80	2.27%
LOSS	PVF-CAND - Bac Ninh	3.90	2.27%
LOSS	America RJ U20 - Artsul U20	3.75	4.37%
WIN	Oakleigh Cannons U23 - St Albans Saints U23	3.90	4.37%
WIN	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Guabira	3.75	2.27%
WIN	FC Orbi - Guria Lanchkhuti	3.60	2.63%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
FC Trinity Zlin - MFK Skalica	2	3.50	2.63%	27 Jun 11:15

Pick

2 @ 3.70

Kickoff

Giu 27, 2026 9:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.63% • n=305

Start

Starts in 20h 47m

Updated

Updated 1h 7m ago