Model: TIPPSH

St Pauli vs Bournemouth

PREDICTION

@ 4.46

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 24, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 4

StartStarted 14h 41m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.11% · n=16

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.11% · n=16

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 16h 45m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is St Pauli. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: St PauliGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.039 | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

59/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds5.86First seen

Current5.02Now

Max odds5.96Highest point

Min odds4.75Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

St PauliHOME

BournemouthAWAY

LWWWW

Recent form

WDDWW

Avg goals scored

3.20

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.80

0.60

Shots on target for

8.80

4.40

SoT conceded pressure

4.80

3.20

Home splitL-W-L-L-D1.20 scored / 2.20 conceded

Away splitW-D-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.46. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.11% based on n=16 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Elite Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.46

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.11% · n=16

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.11% · n=16

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. St Pauli is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -1.4% 7D: 24.0% 15D: 20.7% 30D: 22.2%

Model insight

St Pauli – Bournemouth Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.46. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.11% and 4.11%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Pick

1 @ 4.46

Kickoff

Lug 24, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.11% • n=16

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.11% • n=16

Start

Started 14h 41m ago

Updated

Updated 16h 45m ago