Model: TipTromba4H

Swindon vs Bristol City

PREDICTION

@ 3.90

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 25, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 3

StartStarted 19h 26m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.09% · n=255

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 16h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Swindon. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: SwindonGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.102 | A: 0.007

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

56/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SwindonHOME

Bristol CityAWAY

LLLWL

Recent form

WLWLD

Avg goals scored

1.40

1.60

Defensive weakness

2.20

1.40

Shots on target for

3.00

4.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

Home splitL-L-D-W1.50 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-D-D1.20 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.09% based on n=255 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd3.90

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.09% · n=255

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 7.4% 7D: 24.5% 15D: 16.3% 30D: 21.9%

Model insight

Swindon – Bristol City Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.90. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba4H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.09% and 4.09%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample68

Win Rate30.9%

Profit+11.55u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Hereford FC - Solihull Moors	3.75	4.09%
LOSS	CD INCA - Alianza FC	3.90	4.09%
WIN	Ymir Kopavogur - KH Hlidarendi	3.75	4.09%
LOSS	Walsall - Aston Villa	3.75	4.09%
WIN	Dag & Red - Crystal Palace U21	3.70	4.85%
LOSS	Kaisar Kyzylorda (W) - Tomiris Turan (W)	3.75	4.84%
LOSS	Illawarra Stingrays (W) - NWS Spirit (W)	3.90	4.09%
LOSS	Annecy - FC Sion	3.90	4.09%

Pick

1 @ 3.90

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.09% • n=255

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.09% • n=255

Start

Started 19h 26m ago

Updated

Updated 1d 16h ago