Model: TIPPSH
Umm Salal U23 – Al Gharafa U23
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.65
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 06, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 20d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.90% · n=238
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.90% · n=238
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20d 12h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Umm Salal U23 | Al Gharafa U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-D-W-W-D | D-L-L-D-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | D-D-W-D (home) | D-D-L-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 0.75 conceded | 0.60 scored / 1.20 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.40 for / 2.00 against | 1.80 for / 6.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.25 for / 2.25 against (home) | 2.40 for / 7.20 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Umm Salal U23's attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.91First seen
Current2.81Now
Max odds2.94Highest point
Min odds1.91Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Umm Salal U23 – Al Gharafa U23 Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.65. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.90% and 6.90%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample11
Win Rate27.3%
Profit-3.49u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Haras El Hedoud - Petrojet | 2.87 | 7.96% |
| LOSS | FC Copenhagen - Midtjylland | 2.51 | 6.90% |
| LOSS | Al-Arabi Al-Saudi - Al Jandal | 2.63 | 6.90% |
| LOSS | FK Blansko - SK Unicov | 2.45 | 6.90% |
| WIN | Al Hamriyah - Al Fujairah | 2.45 | 6.90% |
| LOSS | Escola Varsovia U19 - Lech Poznan U19 | 2.70 | 6.90% |
| LOSS | Juazeirense - ASA | 2.40 | 6.90% |
| WIN | Fulham United FC - Adelaide Comets | 2.43 | 6.90% |
Pick
1 @ 2.65
Kickoff
Mag 06, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 6.90% • n=238
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
6.90% • n=238
Start
Started 20d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 20d 12h ago