Villa Nova – Valeriodoce EC

Model: TIPPSA

Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce EC

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.27
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 18, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 10h 4m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.77% · n=237
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 9.91% · n=90
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12h 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Valeriodoce EC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Valeriodoce EC

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

72/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.88First seen
Current3.28Now
Max odds3.28Highest point
Min odds2.88Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Villa NovaHOME
VS
Valeriodoce ECAWAY
DLDLW
Recent form
DWDWW
Avg goals scored
1.80
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.20
Shots on target for
2.20
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.40
3.20
Home splitD-D-W-W-W2.60 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitD-D-W-W-W1.00 scored / 0.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.27. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 9.91% based on n=90 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.27
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.77% · n=237
V4 BandELITEROI 9.91% · n=90
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Valeriodoce EC. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Valeriodoce EC has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 17.5% 7D: 10.3% 15D: 6.8% 30D: 18.8%
Model insight

Villa Nova – Valeriodoce EC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.27. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.77% across 237 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is ELITE, with a historical expected ROI of 9.91% across 90 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample33
Win Rate36.4%
Profit+7.14u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSWesterlo - KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk3.344.77%
WINAnsan Greeners FC - Jinju Citizen FC3.523.84%
LOSSLincoln Red Imps FC - Inter Club d'Escaldes3.304.77%
LOSSDodoma Jiji FC - JKT Tanzania3.054.96%
LOSSGhana - Panama3.354.77%
LOSSAustralia (W) - Mexico (W)3.444.77%
LOSSEgypt - Russia3.274.77%
LOSSRapid Vienna - SV Ried3.294.77%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Universitatea Cluj - Farul Constanta23.503.84%19 Jul 16:00
Pick
2 @ 3.27
Kickoff
Lug 18, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.77% • n=237
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
9.91% • n=90
Start
Started 10h 4m ago
Updated
Updated 12h 6m ago
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