VV Alkmaar (W) – Heerenveen (W)

Model: TIPPSH

VV Alkmaar (W) – Heerenveen (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.78
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 03, 2026 2:15 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 5
StartStarted 23d 12h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 23d 15h ago

Team Form & Goal Trends

Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.

Metric VV Alkmaar (W) Heerenveen (W)
Last 5 form L-D-D W-L-L
Avg goals scored 1.67 2.00
Avg goals conceded 3.00 1.33
Home/Away form L-D (home) W-L (away)
Home/Away avg goals 1.00 scored / 3.00 conceded 3.00 scored / 1.50 conceded
Shots on target 7.00 for / 7.67 against 5.00 for / 7.33 against
Home/Away shots on target 5.50 for / 7.00 against (home) 6.00 for / 8.50 against (away)

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. VV Alkmaar (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.56First seen
Current1.78Now
Max odds1.78Highest point
Min odds1.56Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight

VV Alkmaar (W) – Heerenveen (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.78. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample224
Win Rate54.5%
Profit+7.07u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINVarnsdorf - Mladá Boleslav B1.893.37%
LOSSSouth Melbourne - Auckland FC II1.843.37%
WINJadran Dekani - NK Krka1.913.37%
LOSSNorth Sunshine Eagles - Langwarrin1.753.37%
LOSSCFR Cluj - FC Arges Pitesti1.853.37%
LOSSImisli - FK Karvan1.803.37%
WINKalmar FF - Degerfors1.953.37%
WINReal Monarchs SLC - Colorado Rapids II1.763.37%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz11.984.86%09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina11.932.30%10 May 19:00
Pick
1 @ 1.78
Kickoff
Mag 03, 2026 2:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.86% • n=299
Start
Started 23d 12h ago
Updated
Updated 23d 15h ago
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