Model: TipTromba45H

Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng

PREDICTION

@ 4.20

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 21, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultLOSS3 - 3

StartStarted 1d 2h ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI 0.00% · n=160

V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI 0.00% · n=160

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Yunnan Yukun. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Yunnan YukunGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.118 | A: -0.013

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

43/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.40First seen

Current4.20Now

Max odds4.20Highest point

Min odds3.40Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Yunnan YukunHOME

Chengdu RongchengAWAY

DDLWL

Recent form

DDDDW

Avg goals scored

2.40

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.80

1.60

Shots on target for

6.60

5.60

SoT conceded pressure

6.20

3.80

Home splitD-D-W-L-W2.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitD-D-D-W-W2.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.20. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of 0.00% based on n=160 historical similar picks. The match belongs to China FA Cup (cn). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.20

V2 BandNONEROI 0.00% · n=160

V4 BandNONEROI 0.00% · n=160

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Yunnan Yukun's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 46.5% 7D: 29.5% 15D: 16.0% 30D: 22.3%

Model insight

Yunnan Yukun – Chengdu Rongcheng Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.20. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba45H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 0.00% and 0.00%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample18

Win Rate16.7%

Profit-5.47u

Historical Similar Predictions

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LOSS	Biel Bienne - Yverdon Sport FC	4.00	0.00%
LOSS	Santa Cruz RJ - Perolas Negras	4.00	0.00%
WIN	Hamar Hveragerdi - Arborg	4.20	0.00%
LOSS	XV Piracicaba U20 - Gremio Novorizontino U20	4.20	0.00%
LOSS	Largs Thistle - Auchinleck Talbot	4.10	0.00%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Tenerife - Getafe	1	4.00	0.00%	22 Jul 20:30

Pick

1 @ 4.20

Kickoff

Lug 21, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.00% • n=160

Confidence V4

CONF V4: NONE

Exp. ROI V4

0.00% • n=160

Start

Started 1d 2h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 8h ago