Real Cartagena – Union Magdalena

Model: TipA1

Real Cartagena – Union Magdalena

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 4:30 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 18d 15h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.94% · n=184
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.46% · n=69
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20d 17h ago

Team Form & Goal Trends

Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.

Metric Real Cartagena Union Magdalena
Last 5 form W-W-D-L-L L-W-D-W-L
Avg goals scored 1.00 1.40
Avg goals conceded 1.00 1.20
Home/Away form W-W-L-W (home) L-D-W (away)
Home/Away avg goals 1.75 scored / 1.25 conceded 1.67 scored / 1.33 conceded
Shots on target 2.60 for / 4.20 against 4.80 for / 3.20 against
Home/Away shots on target 4.25 for / 4.00 against (home) 4.33 for / 2.33 against (away)

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Union Magdalena has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.60First seen
Current4.00Now
Max odds4.00Highest point
Min odds3.60Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight

Real Cartagena – Union Magdalena Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.94% across 184 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.46% across 69 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample23
Win Rate39.1%
Profit+12.70u
Historical Similar Predictions
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WINUnion Molinense CF - Olimpico Totana3.902.27%
LOSSAlbacete - Real Sociedad B4.102.27%
WINBoston River Reserves - Central Espanol Reserves4.102.94%
LOSSHualian (W) - AC Taipei (W)3.804.41%
WINSan Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas4.202.94%
LOSSSalPa 2 - PiPS3.752.94%
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Pick
2 @ 4.00
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 4:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.94% • n=184
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
6.46% • n=69
Start
Started 18d 15h ago
Updated
Updated 20d 17h ago
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