Model: TIPPSH
Athletic Bilbao – Celta Vigo
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.25
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 17, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 9d 10h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12d 10h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Athletic Bilbao | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-L-L-W-L | D-L-W-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Home/Away form | D-L-W-L (home) | D-W-L-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.75 scored / 1.00 conceded | 0.60 scored / 1.40 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.00 for / 3.60 against | 3.20 for / 5.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 5.50 for / 3.50 against (home) | 1.80 for / 5.40 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Athletic Bilbao has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.14First seen
Current2.25Now
Max odds2.28Highest point
Min odds2.14Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Athletic Bilbao – Celta Vigo Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.54% and -1.54%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample49
Win Rate38.8%
Profit-4.09u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Rouen - Laval | 2.29 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | Aarau - Grasshoppers | 2.46 | -0.42% |
| LOSS | F91 Dudelange - UNA Strassen | 2.38 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | Padova U19 - Venezia U19 | 2.38 | -1.54% |
| WIN | Sport Boys - Cusco FC | 2.36 | -1.54% |
| WIN | FC Osaka Speranza (W) - Renofa Yamaguchi (W) | 2.50 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | St Gallen - FC Thun | 2.25 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | Montana - Spartak Varna | 2.44 | -1.54% |
Pick
1 @ 2.25
Kickoff
Mag 17, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.54% • n=136
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.54% • n=136
Start
Started 9d 10h ago
Updated
Updated 12d 10h ago