Newcastle Jets NPL – Hurstville FC

Model: TIPPSA

Newcastle Jets NPL vs Hurstville FC

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.03
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultWIN0 - 1
StartStarted 49d 13h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.96% · n=166
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 49d 23h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Hurstville FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Hurstville FC

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

52/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.88First seen
Current3.14Now
Max odds3.14Highest point
Min odds2.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Newcastle Jets NPLHOME
VS
Hurstville FCAWAY
LWLDW
Recent form
WWDLL
Avg goals scored
2.00
1.60
Defensive weakness
2.00
1.60
Shots on target for
7.80
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
8.40
4.60
Home splitL-L-L-W2.00 scored / 2.75 conceded
Away splitW-L-L1.00 scored / 1.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.03. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.96% based on n=166 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia New South Wales League 1 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.03
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.96% · n=166
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 37.1% 7D: 21.3% 15D: 11.2% 30D: 4.0%
Model insight

Newcastle Jets NPL – Hurstville FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.03. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.96% across 166 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample18
Win Rate27.8%
Profit-2.55u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFencibles United - East Coast Bays2.814.96%
LOSSDodoma Jiji FC - JKT Tanzania3.054.96%
LOSSSantamarina Tandil - Kimberley Mar del Plata3.014.96%
LOSSDeportes Copiapo - Santiago Wanderers2.924.96%
WINNew Zealand (W) - Haiti (W)2.864.96%
LOSSQingdao West Coast - Shanghai Shenhua2.914.96%
LOSSEgypt - Russia3.274.77%
LOSSCadiz - Leganes2.864.96%
Pick
2 @ 3.03
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.96% • n=166
Start
Started 49d 13h ago
Updated
Updated 49d 23h ago
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