BFA Vilnius – FK Ekranas

Model: TIPPSH

BFA Vilnius vs FK Ekranas

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.25
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 02, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultWIN3 - 0
StartStarted 22h 29m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.15% · n=323
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is BFA Vilnius. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BFA Vilnius

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

39/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.83First seen
Current2.25Now
Max odds2.25Highest point
Min odds1.82Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BFA VilniusHOME
VS
FK EkranasAWAY
WWLLL
Recent form
LLLLL
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.60
Defensive weakness
1.40
2.20
Shots on target for
4.80
2.80
SoT conceded pressure
1.60
5.80
Home splitW-L-L-W-W1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-D-L0.80 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.25. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.15% based on n=323 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Lithuania 1 Lyga (lt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.25
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.15% · n=323
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to BFA Vilnius's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 108.4% 7D: 69.0% 15D: 33.3% 30D: 11.9%
Model insight

BFA Vilnius – FK Ekranas Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.15% across 323 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample172
Win Rate43.6%
Profit-11.09u
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ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINCuiaba - America MG2.133.37%
LOSSWuhan Three Towns Reserves - Hangzhou Linping Wuyue2.383.15%
LOSSJacuipense U20 - Fluminense De Feira U202.302.49%
LOSSNomads United - Christchurch United2.233.37%
WINStjarnan - KA Akureyri2.093.37%
LOSSIga FC Kunoichi (W) - Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)2.392.49%
WINLandskrona BoIS - IFK Varnamo2.023.37%
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Pick
1 @ 2.25
Kickoff
Lug 02, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.15% • n=323
Start
Started 22h 29m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 5h ago
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