Portuguesa Desportos – Marcilio Dias

Model: TIPPSH

Portuguesa Desportos vs Marcilio Dias

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.79
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 11, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 14h 37m
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.87% · n=104
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.87% · n=104
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 8h 32m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Portuguesa Desportos. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Portuguesa Desportos

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

53/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.62First seen
Current1.79Now
Max odds1.79Highest point
Min odds1.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Portuguesa DesportosHOME
VS
Marcilio DiasAWAY
DWDWW
Recent form
DWDDL
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.00
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.00
Shots on target for
6.80
2.80
SoT conceded pressure
1.60
3.40
Home splitW-W-W-D-W1.80 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitD-D-D-W-W1.00 scored / 0.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.79. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 8.87% based on n=104 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie D (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.79
V2 BandELITEROI 8.87% · n=104
V4 BandELITEROI 8.87% · n=104
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The confidence band strengthens the case for the pick beyond the basic market price. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Portuguesa Desportos's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 233.5% 7D: 2.1% 15D: 36.1% 30D: 14.1%
Model insight

Portuguesa Desportos – Marcilio Dias Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.79. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 8.87% and 8.87%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample2
Win Rate50.0%
Profit-0.10u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINFerroviaria SP - Barra FC1.908.87%
LOSSWales - Ghana1.958.87%
Pick
1 @ 1.79
Kickoff
Lug 11, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 8.87% • n=104
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
8.87% • n=104
Start
Starts in 14h 37m
Updated
Updated 8h 32m ago
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