St George Willawong FC – Caboolture FC

Model: TIPPSH

St George Willawong FC vs Caboolture FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.60
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 18, 2026 12:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 1h
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=113
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=113
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is St George Willawong FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: St George Willawong FC

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

66/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.40First seen
Current3.88Now
Max odds3.89Highest point
Min odds3.40Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

St George Willawong FCHOME
VS
Caboolture FCAWAY
LWWLL
Recent form
LDLWL
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.80
Shots on target for
4.40
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
5.40
Home splitL-W-L-L-L0.40 scored / 2.20 conceded
Away splitD-W-W-W2.50 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.60. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.69% based on n=113 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Queensland Premier League (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.60
V2 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=113
V4 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=113
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to St George Willawong FC's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -25.7% 7D: -5.3% 15D: 10.5% 30D: 14.8%
Model insight

St George Willawong FC – Caboolture FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.60. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.69% and 7.69%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample6
Win Rate33.3%
Profit+1.19u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSShinnik Yaroslavl - PFC Sochi3.387.69%
WINFK Minija - Panevezys3.377.69%
WINHUSA Agadir - RSB Berkane3.825.87%
LOSSEl Salvador (W) - Costa Rica (W)3.707.69%
LOSSClub 9 de Octubre - Manta FC3.707.69%
LOSSWil 1900 - FC Vaduz3.606.76%
Pick
1 @ 3.60
Kickoff
Lug 18, 2026 12:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 7.69% • n=113
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
7.69% • n=113
Start
Starts in 2d 1h
Updated
Updated 10m ago
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