UD Alagoana (W) – Doce Mel EC (W)

Model: TIPPSA

UD Alagoana (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.19
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 25, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 20h 13m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 22h 17m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Doce Mel EC (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Doce Mel EC (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

24/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.82First seen
Current2.19Now
Max odds2.19Highest point
Min odds1.82Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

UD Alagoana (W)HOME
VS
Doce Mel EC (W)AWAY
WLLLL
Recent form
LDLLW
Avg goals scored
0.60
0.80
Defensive weakness
3.20
2.60
Shots on target for
3.00
2.00
SoT conceded pressure
7.00
4.40
Home splitW-L-W-W-L1.80 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-W-W1.20 scored / 2.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.19. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.84% based on n=515 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie A2 Women (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.19
V2 BandNONEROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -7.8% 7D: 8.0% 15D: 12.1% 30D: 20.1%
Model insight

UD Alagoana (W) – Doce Mel EC (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.19. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.84% across 515 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample49
Win Rate42.9%
Profit-4.27u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSDedza Dynamos - Big Bullets2.02-0.84%
LOSSNK Triglav Kranj - HNK Segesta2.12-0.84%
WINFC Emmen - FC Twente2.10-0.84%
LOSSNingbo Professional U20 - Hubei Istar U202.05-0.84%
LOSSPittsburgh Riverhounds - Louisville City FC2.21-0.84%
LOSSAthlone Town U20 - Derry City U202.24-0.84%
WINFinn Harps - Bray Wanderers2.08-0.84%
WINSpartak Moscow U19 - Lokomotiv Moscow U192.21-0.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.19
Kickoff
Lug 25, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.84% • n=515
Start
Started 20h 13m ago
Updated
Updated 22h 17m ago
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