Pittsburgh Riverhounds – Louisville City FC

Model: TIPPSA

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City FC

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.21
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 18, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 1
StartStarted 19h 2m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.76% · n=235
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 21h 26m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Louisville City FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Louisville City FC

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

21/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.10First seen
Current2.21Now
Max odds2.36Highest point
Min odds2.10Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsHOME
VS
Louisville City FCAWAY
WLWLD
Recent form
LWWDD
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.00
1.40
Shots on target for
2.80
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
3.40
Home splitW-W-L-W-W1.60 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-D-W-D-L1.40 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.21. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.76% based on n=235 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA USL Championship (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.21
V2 BandNONEROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 BandNONEROI -1.76% · n=235
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Louisville City FC's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 31.8% 7D: 13.7% 15D: 12.0% 30D: 19.0%
Model insight

Pittsburgh Riverhounds – Louisville City FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.21. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -0.84% and -1.76%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample45
Win Rate44.4%
Profit-2.37u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSNingbo Professional U20 - Hubei Istar U202.05-0.84%
LOSSAthlone Town U20 - Derry City U202.24-0.84%
WINFinn Harps - Bray Wanderers2.08-0.84%
WINSpartak Moscow U19 - Lokomotiv Moscow U192.21-0.84%
LOSSFC Nordsjaelland - Sparta Prague2.17-0.84%
LOSSBATE Borisov - AF Elbasani2.20-0.84%
WINPuskas Academy - Istanbul Basaksehir2.03-0.84%
WINKelty Hearts - Queen's Park2.20-0.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.21
Kickoff
Lug 18, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.84% • n=515
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.76% • n=235
Start
Started 19h 2m ago
Updated
Updated 21h 26m ago
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