Model: TipA1

America SP U23 vs Itaquaquecetuba U23

PREDICTION

@ 2.30

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 26, 2026 5:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 18h 1m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.85% · n=441

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 12m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Itaquaquecetuba U23. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Itaquaquecetuba U23Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.150 | A: 0.095

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

52/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.30First seen

Current2.36Now

Max odds2.36Highest point

Min odds2.30Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

America SP U23HOME

Itaquaquecetuba U23AWAY

WDWDD

Recent form

WWWWL

Avg goals scored

1.60

2.40

Defensive weakness

0.60

0.80

Shots on target for

4.20

6.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

2.60

Home splitD-W-D-W-W1.80 scored / 0.40 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-W-W2.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.85% based on n=441 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Paulista Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.30

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.85% · n=441

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Itaquaquecetuba U23. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Itaquaquecetuba U23's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -8.7% 7D: 10.6% 15D: 12.9% 30D: 20.9%

Model insight

America SP U23 – Itaquaquecetuba U23 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.30. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.85% across 441 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample196

Win Rate43.4%

Profit+3.72u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	CDT Real Oruro U19 - Real Tomayapo U19	2.10	3.75%
LOSS	Cruz Azul U19 (W) - Unam Pumas U19 (W)	2.25	4.27%
WIN	FC Balti - Dacia Buiucani	2.55	4.27%
LOSS	Cumberland United - Adelaide Blue Eagles	2.10	3.75%
WIN	Deportivo Laferrere Reserves - CA Brown de Adrogue Reserves	2.50	4.27%
LOSS	Uniao Sao Joao - XV Piracicaba	2.15	3.75%
WIN	Odra Opole - Arka Gdynia	2.30	4.27%
LOSS	Club Atletico Progreso Reserves - Atletico River Plate Reserves	2.40	4.27%

Pick

2 @ 2.30

Kickoff

Lug 26, 2026 5:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.85% • n=441

Start

Starts in 18h 1m

Updated

Updated 12m ago