Cagliari – Modena

Model: TipTromba2H

Cagliari vs Modena

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.65
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 28, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 20h 27m
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.89% · n=1157
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.89% · n=1157
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1h 32m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Cagliari. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CagliariGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.049 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

13/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.44First seen
Current1.65Now
Max odds1.65Highest point
Min odds1.44Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CagliariHOME
VS
ModenaAWAY
DWWLD
Recent form
LLWLL
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.60
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.20
Shots on target for
5.40
4.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
5.20
Home splitD-W-L-W-W1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-D-L0.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.65. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.89% based on n=1157 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.65
V2 BandNONEROI -1.89% · n=1157
V4 BandNONEROI -1.89% · n=1157
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The short price is supported by recent form data, with Cagliari showing a clearer performance edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Cagliari has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -15.8% 7D: -4.4% 15D: 11.7% 30D: 16.6%
Model insight

Cagliari – Modena Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.65. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.89% and -1.89%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample421
Win Rate63.9%
Profit+11.30u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINIvory Coast U20 - Benin U201.50-3.38%
LOSSGrIFK Reservi - EPS Reservi1.55-3.82%
LOSSGoztepe - NK Rudes1.73-1.89%
WINCD FAS Reserves - Municipal Limeno Reserves1.73-3.38%
LOSSNoroeste - Uniao Sao Joao1.55-3.38%
WINLDU Quito (W) - Barcelona Guayaquil (W)1.62-1.89%
WINElfsborg (W) - Umea IK (W)1.67-3.82%
LOSSMacarthur Rams U20 - Hurstville FC U201.57-3.38%
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Pick
1 @ 1.65
Kickoff
Lug 28, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.89% • n=1157
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.89% • n=1157
Start
Starts in 20h 27m
Updated
Updated 1h 32m ago
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