Independiente Santa Fe – Union Magdalena

Model: TipA1

Independiente Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena

PREDICTION
2
@ 5.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 06, 2026 4:00 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 1d 5h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 5.00% · n=28
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 5.00% · n=28
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1h 26m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Union Magdalena. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Union MagdalenaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.114 | A: -0.072

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

65/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.00First seen
Current5.28Now
Max odds5.28Highest point
Min odds5.00Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Independiente Santa FeHOME
VS
Union MagdalenaAWAY
DWLWW
Recent form
DLDDW
Avg goals scored
1.80
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.80
0.40
Shots on target for
3.40
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
5.80
2.00
Home splitD-W-W-D-W2.20 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-D-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 5.00. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 5.00% based on n=28 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Colombia Cup (co). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd5.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 5.00% · n=28
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 5.00% · n=28
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Union Magdalena has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 105.7% 7D: 32.8% 15D: 10.3% 30D: 14.5%
Model insight

Independiente Santa Fe – Union Magdalena Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 5.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 5.00% and 5.00%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample15
Win Rate26.7%
Profit+4.75u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSAlianza Universidad - Sport Huancayo II5.003.58%
WINMontpellier - Cannes5.005.00%
LOSSFC Dordrecht - Borussia Dortmund II4.753.58%
LOSSGrazer AK - SV Kapfenberg4.753.58%
LOSSMetz - Versailles 785.005.00%
LOSSWillem II - FC Eindhoven4.753.58%
LOSSKozarmisleny SE - Pecsi MFC5.003.58%
WINCobresal - La Serena5.003.58%
Pick
2 @ 5.00
Kickoff
Ago 06, 2026 4:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.00% • n=28
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
5.00% • n=28
Start
Starts in 1d 5h
Updated
Updated 1h 26m ago
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