Model: TipTromba2H

EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano

PREDICTION

@ 1.75

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 09, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 0

StartStarted 11h 17m ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.35% · n=470

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.35% · n=470

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is EC Sao Bernardo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: EC Sao BernardoGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.058 | A: 0.031

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

47/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.75First seen

Current1.78Now

Max odds1.78Highest point

Min odds1.75Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

EC Sao BernardoHOME

Sao CaetanoAWAY

WWLLW

Recent form

LLDLD

Avg goals scored

2.20

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.20

2.00

Shots on target for

5.20

2.20

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

5.60

Home splitW-W2.50 scored / 0.50 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-D0.25 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.75. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.35% based on n=470 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Paulista Cup (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.75

V2 BandHIGHROI 7.35% · n=470

V4 BandHIGHROI 7.35% · n=470

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The market strongly favors EC Sao Bernardo, and recent form broadly confirms the direction of the price. Historical model data adds support here, as similar HIGH selections have produced encouraging results. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to EC Sao Bernardo's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 23.1% 7D: 18.4% 15D: 11.0% 30D: 12.2%

Model insight

EC Sao Bernardo – Sao Caetano Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.75. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.35% and 7.35%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample276

Win Rate59.4%

Profit+17.70u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Hammarby TFF - FBK Karlstad	1.53	6.49%
WIN	Blooming U19 - Oriente Petrolero U19	1.80	6.89%
LOSS	FC Heimo (W) - EPS (W)	1.75	6.89%
LOSS	Miedz Legnica II - Barycz Sulow	1.91	7.35%
WIN	Kagoshima United - Thespa Gunma	1.75	7.35%
WIN	Sport Huancayo II - Santos FC	1.95	7.35%
LOSS	Bavois - FC Zurich II	1.75	6.89%
WIN	FCJ Blackbird - JJK/2	1.50	6.49%

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Pick

1 @ 1.75

Kickoff

Ago 09, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 7.35% • n=470

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

7.35% • n=470

Start

Started 11h 17m ago

Updated

Updated 1d 1h ago