Boldmere St Michaels – Carlton Town

Model: TipTromba5H

Boldmere St Michaels vs Carlton Town

PREDICTION
1
@ 4.50
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 11, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 1d 4h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.05% · n=66
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.05% · n=66
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Boldmere St Michaels. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Boldmere St MichaelsGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.011 | A: -0.167

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

59/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.50First seen
Current4.87Now
Max odds4.87Highest point
Min odds4.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Boldmere St MichaelsHOME
VS
Carlton TownAWAY
LDLW
Recent form
LDD
Avg goals scored
1.75
0.67
Defensive weakness
1.75
1.67
Shots on target for
6.50
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
7.25
7.50
Home splitL-D-L-W1.75 scored / 1.75 conceded
Away splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.50. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.05% based on n=66 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Northern League Division One (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd4.50
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.05% · n=66
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.05% · n=66
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Boldmere St Michaels has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Boldmere St Michaels's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 5.3% 7D: 3.7% 15D: 10.3% 30D: 9.6%
Model insight

Boldmere St Michaels – Carlton Town Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.05% and 4.05%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample38
Win Rate21.1%
Profit-1.50u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINFC Amical Saint-Prex - AC Bellinzona4.753.53%
LOSSModbury Vista (W) - West Torrens Birkalla (W)4.504.05%
LOSSCS Sanatatea Cluj - Unirea Alba Iulia4.504.05%
WINBronshoj BK - HB Køge4.504.05%
WINSawmer SC - Rangdajied United FC4.504.05%
LOSSSK Steti - Varnsdorf4.504.05%
WINFortaleza CEIF (W) - Independiente Medellin (W)4.504.05%
LOSSAl Ahli Jeddah - Fulham4.504.05%
Pick
1 @ 4.50
Kickoff
Ago 11, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.05% • n=66
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.05% • n=66
Start
Starts in 1d 4h
Updated
Updated 10m ago
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