Model: TIPPSA

New Mexico United vs Tulsa

PREDICTION

@ 3.20

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 16, 2026 5:30 AM

ResultLOSS1 - 0

StartStarted 1d 17h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.96% · n=166

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 20h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tulsa. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: TulsaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.287 | A: 0.012

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

54/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.14First seen

Current3.20Now

Max odds3.26Highest point

Min odds3.13Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

New Mexico UnitedHOME

TulsaAWAY

WWWWW

Recent form

LLWWD

Avg goals scored

2.60

0.40

Defensive weakness

0.60

0.40

Shots on target for

5.00

2.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.40

2.20

Home splitW-W-W-D-D1.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-L-D0.60 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.20. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.96% based on n=166 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA USL Championship (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.20

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.96% · n=166

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -28.5% 7D: -24.1% 15D: -1.4% 30D: 3.5%

Model insight

New Mexico United – Tulsa Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.20. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.96% across 166 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample38

Win Rate34.2%

Profit+5.05u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Dungannon Swifts Reserves - Linfield Reserves	3.23	3.61%
LOSS	York - Bristol Rovers	3.36	4.77%
LOSS	Kickers Offenbach - FC Astoria Walldorf	3.30	4.77%
LOSS	Caen - Valenciennes	3.09	4.96%
LOSS	Hodd - Moss	3.04	4.96%
WIN	Junior - Millonarios	3.32	4.77%
WIN	Shandong Taishan - Henan	3.36	3.84%
LOSS	Union Berlin (W) - Hamburger SV (W)	3.30	4.77%

Pick

2 @ 3.20

Kickoff

Ago 16, 2026 5:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.96% • n=166

Start

Started 1d 17h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 20h ago