Model: TIPPSH

Fenerbahce vs Lyon

PREDICTION

@ 2.05

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 18, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2d 13h

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fenerbahce. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FenerbahceGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.008 | A: -0.054

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.08First seen

Current2.05Now

Max odds2.08Highest point

Min odds2.05Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FenerbahceHOME

LyonAWAY

LWWDW

Recent form

WLLWL

Avg goals scored

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.60

1.60

Shots on target for

7.60

5.00

SoT conceded pressure

2.20

4.80

Home splitW-W-W-D-W2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-L-W-L-W1.20 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UEFA Champions League Qualifying. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.05

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Fenerbahce has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -18.6% 7D: -17.9% 15D: 1.9% 30D: 5.0%

Model insight

Fenerbahce – Lyon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.05. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample645

Win Rate49.6%

Profit-0.17u

Historical Similar Predictions

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WIN	Lautoka FC - Nadi FC	1.85	1.31%
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WIN	Tigre U20 - Racing Club U20	2.21	1.31%
LOSS	CA Huracan U20 - Godoy Cruz U20	1.82	1.04%
WIN	Newell's U20 - San Lorenzo U20	2.10	1.04%
LOSS	SV Donau Klagenfurt - SVG Bleiburg	1.95	1.31%
WIN	Dukla Banska Bystrica U19 - MFK Zemplin Michalovce U19	1.93	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.05

Kickoff

Ago 18, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Starts in 2d 13h

Updated

Updated 10m ago