Rostov – Lokomotiv Moscow

Model: TIPPSH

Rostov vs Lokomotiv Moscow

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.88
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 18, 2026 9:45 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 3h 26m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.37% · n=266
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.37% · n=266
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5h 35m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Rostov. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: RostovGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.076 | A: -0.012

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

25/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.38First seen
Current2.88Now
Max odds2.88Highest point
Min odds2.16Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

RostovHOME
VS
Lokomotiv MoscowAWAY
WDDWW
Recent form
LDDDL
Avg goals scored
2.00
0.60
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.00
Shots on target for
7.00
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
6.20
Home splitW-D-L-L-L0.40 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-L0.60 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.88. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -2.37% based on n=266 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Russia Cup (ru). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.88
V2 BandNONEROI -2.37% · n=266
V4 BandNONEROI -2.37% · n=266
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Rostov. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Rostov has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -14.4% 7D: -19.3% 15D: -3.0% 30D: 1.7%
Model insight

Rostov – Lokomotiv Moscow Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.88. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -2.37% and -2.37%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample54
Win Rate33.3%
Profit-1.90u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFC Lauterach - SC Schwaz2.75-2.37%
LOSSIroni Tiberias - Maccabi Petah Tikva2.88-2.37%
LOSSBochum II - Rot-Weiss Oberhausen3.09-2.37%
LOSSLeyton Orient - Sheff Wed3.00-1.00%
WINBonnyrigg Rose - Annan Athletic2.80-2.37%
WINCA Talleres de Cordoba (W) - San Lorenzo (W)2.90-2.37%
LOSSCowdenbeath - Broxburn Athletic3.05-2.37%
LOSSFC Baranovichi - BATE Borisov2.76-2.37%
Pick
1 @ 2.88
Kickoff
Ago 18, 2026 9:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -2.37% • n=266
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-2.37% • n=266
Start
Started 3h 26m ago
Updated
Updated 5h 35m ago
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