Model: TipA1

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves vs Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

PREDICTION

@ 2.63

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 31, 2026 10:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 1d 20h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.85% · n=441

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Deportivo Maldonado Reserves. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Deportivo Maldonado ReservesGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.015 | A: -0.008

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

55/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.63First seen

Current2.63Now

Max odds2.63Highest point

Min odds2.63Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Liverpool Montevideo ReservesHOME

Deportivo Maldonado ReservesAWAY

LWLWD

Recent form

WWWLL

Avg goals scored

1.20

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.20

Shots on target for

5.00

8.40

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

4.40

Home splitL-L-D-W-W1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-W-L0.80 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.63. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.85% based on n=441 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Reserve League (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.63

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.85% · n=441

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Deportivo Maldonado Reserves's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 17.2% 7D: 10.0% 15D: 17.2% 30D: 8.3%

Model insight

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves – Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.63. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.85% across 441 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample199

Win Rate42.2%

Profit+12.73u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Deportivo LSM - CA Bella Vista	2.40	4.27%
LOSS	CS Vulturii Farcasesti - CS U Craiova II	2.60	4.27%
LOSS	Komarom VSE - MTE 1904	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	Slavia Prague U19 - Ceske Budejovice U19	2.75	4.44%
WIN	Cadiz Mirandilla - Club Atletico Central	2.60	4.27%
WIN	Itabirito U20 - Coimbra U20	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	SD Atletico Nacional - CD Universitario Reserves	2.70	4.27%
WIN	Apollon Limassol (W) - FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	2.55	4.27%

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Pick

2 @ 2.63

Kickoff

Ago 31, 2026 10:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.85% • n=441

Start

Started 1d 20h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 10h ago